Four Reasons Your Beauty Is Not What It Could Be wbc247_adfx.jpg

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Worse than that, there is overwhelming evidence that NAM is inferior to the GFS, the NWS's global model. There are two major problems with NAM: verification scores and a number of research papers have shown it is decidedly inferior to WRF. The latest verification scores (5 day, 500 hPa, global, graphic below) over the past month show the story: ECMWF is best (red), UKMET is in second place (yellow), and the US GFS is third (black), essentially tied with the Canadians (CMC, light green). And what I will describe below is based on hard facts, including objective verification scores and peer-reviewed research. I can demonstrate the latter by quoting from two papers in the peer-reviewed literature, the first from Charles and Colle (2009) and the second from Yan and Gallus (2016). I could supply a dozen more papers saying the same thing, includes ones I have co-authored. This can open your pores and help to get rid of black heads.


Get an EA Access Exclusive NBA Live 19 Reward Collection for you squad and player. It failed to get the key pattern of the last few years, with a ridge over the western U.S. The wood will stain, get scratched, and develop nicks in it. As we will see, the NWS is running a huge, and unwieldly, array of models, domains, and systems for high-resolution forecasts. Unfortunately, this modeling system (which requires substantial computer sources to apply) has very little skill past 3 weeks and is inferior to inexpensive statistical approaches at for all but the shortest forecasts. As shown below, the errors of CFS (for the globe, the tropics, and the midlatitudes) in the middle troposphere (500 hPa) grow rapidly 1-3 weeks into the future, and by 3 weeks virtually all skill is lost (climatology, what has happened on average in the past, is superior at longer ranges). CFSv2 has failed to forecast nearly every major seasonal and subseasonal (3 weeks and more) event over the past several years.


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